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Ready To Roll: The Benefits Of Today’s Advanced Technology Vehicles For Oregon 11/05/2005 _Ready_To_Roll_.pdf

Executive Summary

Despite tighter federal air pollution limits for automobiles over the last three decades, Oregon’s fleet of automobiles produces more global warming pollution than ever before, and toxic air pollution continues to threaten Oregonians’ health. Increasing the use of advanced technologies and advanced technology vehicles would drastically cut Oregon’s global warming pollution and help alleviate both toxic and smog-forming air pollution, while enhancing Oregon’s energy security and boosting the state’s economy.

Policies such as the Clean Cars program, which establishes standards for global warming pollution and toxic air pollution from new cars and light trucks and also requires the sale of low- and near-zero-emission vehicles, will help bring increased numbers of advanced technology vehicles to the state.

Automakers’ continued dependence on old and inefficient technologies is causing unnecessary levels of global warming pollution, toxic air pollution, and dependence on a volatile energy supply. These problems pose serious threats to Oregon’s environment, public health, and economy.

• The transportation sector, including cars and light trucks, is responsible for 38% of Oregon’s carbon dioxide emissions which is the primary form of global warming pollution in Oregon. Global warming already threatens Oregon’s environment. Scientists have measured a 50% decline in Cascades snowpack since the 1950s, reducing summer river flows and disrupting the state’s water cycle. If current trends continue, pollution from cars and trucks will reach levels 31% higher than 1990 levels by 2020. Scientists estimate that we must reduce pollution to 75% below 1990 levels by 2050 in order to avoid the most disastrous effects of global warming (pg. 10).

• Motor vehicles are a major source of toxic air pollution in Oregon. Every Oregon county has six or more toxic pollutants present in the air at levels that exceed EPA health benchmarks. High concentrations of air toxics such as benzene, formaldehyde, and acetaldehyde raise Oregon residents’ cancer risk above federal health goals statewide (pg. 12).

• Oregon’s over-reliance on petroleum for transportation leaves the state susceptible to rising prices, price spikes and supply disruptions, and sends millions of dollars out of state in unnecessary fuel costs. Oregonians spend roughly $11.75 million dollars on gasoline every day, and nearly $4.3 billion annually. Because Oregon has no oil production or gasoline refining capacity in state, the majority of the profits from gasoline sales accrue to companies outside of Oregon, hurting Oregon’s economy and leaving less money in the hands its consumers and businesses. These problems will become more severe over the next several decades as global petroleum supplies tighten and prices rise (pg. 14).

There are advanced technology vehicles–– and advanced technologies for conventional vehicles––that can alleviate these problems. While the technologies are “ready to roll,” their availability in Oregon is limited.

• Clean conventional vehicles: Automakers can make every car and truck in their fleet produce significantly less global warming pollution by using advanced technologies already in existence, such as advanced transmissions, direct-injection engines, and improved aerodynamics. Many of these improvements to make cars cleaner could also significantly increase fuel efficiency, enhancing Oregon’s energy security and economy. In addition, fourteen automakers now manufacture conventional vehicles that meet California’s rigorous partial Zero Emission Vehicle (PZEV) emission standards that significantly reduce toxic air pollutants. However, many of these vehicles are available only to consumers in states that have adopted the Clean Cars program (pg. 20).

• Hybrid-electric vehicles: Americans purchased 93,000 hybrid cars in the first six months of 2005, more than they purchased in all of 2004. Sales took off in late summer as gas prices rose. As many as 60 percent of potential vehicle buyers surveyed state that they would consider buying a hybrid, yet some Oregon auto dealers report waiting lists for the popular Toyota Prius hybrid. Hybrid-electric technology can cut global warming pollution from cars by one-third, as well as provide substantial reductions in toxic air emissions (pg. 26).

• Other types of advanced technology vehicles––such as–battery-electric vehicles and–“plug-in” hybrids––also show the potential for significant environmental benefits, including zero or near-zero emissions of toxic and global warming pollution (provided they are charged from a clean source of electricity). However, the auto industry must move these technologies to market more aggressively to make them available to the general public (pg. 36)

• Fuel-cell vehicles also offer significant potential for zero or near-zero emissions. But this promise only holds true if the hydrogen is generated from renewable resources; current federal investment is geared toward fossil-fuel and nuclear sources of hydrogen. There are also substantial infrastructure investment obstacles that must be overcome before hydrogen fuel-cell cars will be a broadly viable solution (pg. 38)

Adopting the Clean Cars program will put tens of thousands of advanced technology cars, light trucks, and SUVs on Oregon’s roads by the end of the decade, at minimal additional cost to automakers and a net benefit to consumers. The Clean Cars program’s advanced technology vehicle requirements and its pollution standards will cut global warming and toxic air pollution from cars and light trucks.

• The Clean Cars program’s “Zero Emission Vehicle” requirements will result in sales of approximately 7,000 hybrid-electric vehicles and 30,500 ultra clean conventional gasolinepowered vehicles in Oregon in 2008 (when model year 2009 vehicles go on sale), with the numbers increasing over time (pg. 45).

• By 2016, the standards will reduce global warming pollution from new cars by 34 percent and from new light trucks by 25 percent. These cuts will reduce total global warming pollution from Oregon’s cars and light trucks 12% below projected levels by 2020, the equivalent of removing 350,000 cars from Oregon’s roads. (pg. 50)

• The air quality standards in the Clean Cars program will provide a 5 percent reduction in emissions of volatile organic compounds, including toxic air pollutants that threaten Oregonians health, over federal standards by 2020. Nitrogen oxide emissions will be reduced an additional 11 percent beyond cuts achieved by federal standards. (pg. 48)

• The Clean Cars Program will also ensure a consistent supply of clean vehicles for Oregon’s consumers, create economies of scale to drive down costs, provide enough vehicles to allow the construction of alternativefuel infrastructure, set high standards for vehicle technology, and help guide the development of even cleaner automotive technologies in the years to come. (pg. 46) The Clean Cars program will provide a net benefit to consumers and businesses who purchase cars and auto manufacturers will only incur minimal costs.

• The global warming pollution standards will provide a net benefit from the Clean Cars program for consumers. Because the cleaner cars will be less expensive to operate, the projected increase in the up front cost of new vehicles will be more than offset by decreased operating costs. When the program is fully implemented, vehicle owners in Oregon will experience a collective net savings of $8 million annually (p. 53).

• Producing vehicles to meet the airquality and Zero-Emission Vehicle targets would cost automakers approximately $11.5 million in model year 2009. The incremental cost of the program in model year 2009 represents 0.038 percent of automakers profits in 2004. These costs will be offset by financial benefits for automakers because the technological improvements can be exported to other vehicle lines and can assist in complying with other regulatory standards. (p. 51).

The goals of the Clean Cars program are attainable and achieving them would be beneficial to Oregon.